Heat Keep on Slippin'

For all those folks who have subscribed to the season long assumption that the Miami Heat would be the inevitable representative from the Eastern Conference in the NBA finals, the way the team has played since the all-star break should make one reconsider that notion.  Last night's loss to the Bulls marked the most recent installment in a surprisingly mediocre stretch of games in which Miami has played .500 ball and has been beaten handily, both at home and on the road, by their top two Eastern conference rivals, the Bulls and the Celtics.  The Bulls have been largely without their MVP point guard Derrick Rose, and have nevertheless maintained the best record in the NBA, to their credit.  The Celtics have also been playing outstanding basketball, especially since the all-star break, but have been ravaged by injuries all season and still a fully healthy Miami squad has been beaten twice in a row by both Boston and Chicago.

Some members of the sports media have speculated that the Heat's recent lull is simply due to disinterest; that they are looking past the remainder of this condensed NBA season, treating it as largely irrelevant and when playoff time comes, they will be able to flip a switch so to speak and once again become the favorites to win the East.  In response to such sentiment, one of my favorite NBA analysts Tim Legler states that truly great, championship caliber teams do not get disinterested.  I strongly concur.  It might be slightly more understandable if the Heat has clinched the #1 seed and secured home court advantage throughout the playoffs, but this is not the case.  In fact, the Heat have a 16-13 record on the road this season, which suggests that home court advantage will be of extreme importance during the playoffs, even more so for Miami than the average team.

The Heat's questionable mental toughness aside, the team does in fact have tangible flaws.  The most glaring of them being their lack of a strong low-post presence, not only on the offensive end but regarding defensive match ups and shot-blocking/rebounding as well.  Chris Bosh is a highly skilled big man, he is a multiple all-star and deservedly so.  However, much of his value is derived from his jump-shooting ability as well as his quickness off the dribble for a player of his size (6'11").  Bosh is a finesse player for the most part, and does not do many of the little things down low that Miami needs.  Joel Anthony has been extremely disappointing at the center position, only averaging 3 points and 3 rebounds on the season.  Miami signed free agent Ronnie Turiaf recently to try to address their low post issues, but Turiaf despite being hard nosed big man, is aging and undersized, and has not performed nearly to the standard that the Heat require if they are serious about winning a championship.

In addition to their low-post deficiencies, Miami's long range shooters have been under-performing.  Shane Battier and Mike Miller most notably has been struggling shooting the ball.  With all that said, all the responsibility of the Miami Heat's destiny will inevitably fall on Lebron James and Dwayne Wade's shoulders.  Although these two superstar's have an immense amount of talent and capability, they are not extremely compatible on the court.  Their skill sets do not necessarily complement each other, primarily because of how similar their strengths and weaknesses are.  Neither Wade or James are high percentage 3 point shooters.  They both are at their best when penetrating the interior of the defense and getting to the rim/free throw line.  Therefore, when one of them drives to the basket and is able to draw the defense in, the ideal basketball play is to kick the ball out for a hopefully wide open three point shot, but as I said neither shoot the ball particularly well from distance.  The one facet of the game where the duo does excel is on the fast break, as their strength, speed, jumping ability and overall athleticism is unrivaled in the NBA or perhaps anywhere on the planet.  So for teams trying to beat the Heat in an upcoming playoff series, I would suggest to slow down the game to a methodical, half-court style of play and they will inevitably struggle at times.  It just so happens that style of play is exactly what the Celtics and the Bulls do best.  The Miami Heat better start getting very interested in playing championship basketball very soon, or they could once again be suffering the immense scrutiny that will undoubtedly occur if they, like last season, fail to win the NBA championship.  Close counts in Horse-shoes, but in the modern post-"decision" NBA, the Miami Heat are faced with a simple absolute.  Anything less than four wins in the NBA finals will be viewed by everyone, including the team themselves, as an abject failure.